Previento wind power prediction
 
Previento is an operational system for predicting the power output of wind farms that allows energy providers, energy brokers, and grid operators to integrate the fluctuating input of wind energy into their daily business in a manner that is both economically and technically efficient.
 
Previento provides a reliable prediction of the expected wind power – and that up to 4 days in advance and with a time resolution of up to 15 minutes for any selected location in Germany and Europe.

A wind power prediction rests upon the local conditions in the area of the wind farms as well as on a numerical weather prediction. The entire input of wind-generated electric current from a region is calculated on the basis of selected wind farms. During this process, the representative areas are selected such that they mirror the regional distribution of the wind energy facilities to a very high degree. 
 
The exactness of the prediction varies with the weather situation. In contrast to other prediction systems, Previento additionally calculates the margin of error in reference to the actual prediction value dependent upon the current uncertainty in weather conditions.

The entire prediction data collected is centrally calculated on our servers and relayed to our customers in a standard electronic format via the internet. 
 
Previento was developed by the energy meteorology research group at the Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg and ForWind, the center for wind energy research based in Oldenburg.  Within the framework of their research activities, the scientists gave utmost importance to verification on the basis of several years of collected data.

Previento brought to the point:

 
  • Prediction of the wind power for 
    • the entire country
    • selected control areas 
    • particular counties
    • selected wind farms
  • time interval: 0 to 96 hours
  • time resolution: 15 Min. to 1 hour
  • prediction updated several times per day 
  • available from at 7:00 AM (GMT) in the morning
  • per E-Mail or sftp
  • ASCII (csv, txt) or Excel (xls)
  • optional: integration of online measurement data to optimate the prediction
 
 
Co-operation Partners:

The company Overspeed GmbH & Co.KG, Oldenburg, a specialist for technical information systems and remote monitoring, keeps the operational handling of the Previento server up and running around the clock.

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Previento is based on a complex physical description of the atmosphere. The system uses input from different weather prediction models to calculate the anticipated wind power.

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Current evaluation of forecast accuracy by customer. Previento shows an outstandingly high accuracy. The operational prediction for Germany of different providers was evaluated over a time period of 8 months (Nov 2004 to June 2005) using the root mean square error (rmse) normalised to the installed power. The monthly variations of the forecast accuracy were in the range of 4% to 10%.
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